置信系数

The confidence coefficient, also called confidence level or degree of confidence, is calculated as 1−α, where α represents the area under the probability curve distributed equally on both tails. It expresses the probability that a calculated confidence interval contains the true population parameter. Common confidence coefficients are 0.90, 0.95, and 0.99, corresponding to 90%, 95%, and 99% confidence levels respectively.

The alpha value (α) in the confidence coefficient formula represents the area under the curve on both tails and directly indicates the level of statistical significance. When confidence coefficient is 0.95, alpha equals 0.05, meaning there is a 5% significance level. The relationship is inverse: as confidence coefficient increases, statistical significance decreases, reflecting greater certainty in the interval estimate.

An appropriate confidence coefficient is essential because without it, confidence limits cannot be calculated or interpreted correctly. The confidence coefficient determines how confident researchers can be that their calculated intervals contain the true population parameter. Selecting the right level—typically 90%, 95%, or 99%—ensures the statistical analysis meets the study's precision requirements and supports valid conclusions.

A 95% confidence coefficient means that if a researcher repeated their sampling procedure many times and calculated confidence intervals each time, approximately 95 out of 100 of those intervals would contain the true population parameter. This assumes unbiased sampling conducted a sufficient number of times. The remaining 5% represents the alpha value, indicating the probability the interval does not contain the parameter.

The three commonly used confidence coefficients are 0.90 (90%), 0.95 (95%), and 0.99 (99%), with corresponding alpha values of 0.10, 0.05, and 0.01 respectively. Higher confidence coefficients provide greater certainty that the interval contains the population parameter but result in wider intervals. Lower coefficients produce narrower intervals but with less confidence, requiring researchers to balance precision with certainty based on study objectives.

The mathematical relationship between confidence coefficient and alpha is expressed as: confidence coefficient + α = 1. This means if the confidence coefficient is 0.95, then α equals 0.05. This fundamental equation ensures that the probability of the interval containing the parameter plus the probability of it not containing the parameter always equals one, representing complete probability coverage.

The confidence coefficient is essential for correctly interpreting confidence intervals because it defines the probability statement about the interval. It tells researchers what percentage of repeated samples would produce intervals containing the true parameter. Without specifying the confidence coefficient, the interval cannot be meaningfully interpreted, making it impossible to assess the reliability and precision of the estimate for decision-making.