Le comportement cyclique des variables économiques : synchronisation

In terms of timing, the economic variables can be leading, coincident, or lagging.

A leading variable changes direction before the business cycle turning points.

A coincident variable changes direction at about the same time as the business cycle.

A lagging variable changes direction after the turning point in the business cycle.

Economists, businesses, and research institutions carefully study economic variables, also known as economic indicators. They pay especially close attention to leading indicators.

These indicators may help them understand when the economy will expand or contract.

But the ups and downs in the business cycle are difficult to predict.

Even then, by studying leading variables, governments and businesses can prepare better for future economic changes.