The Anchoring-and-Adjustment Heuristic

When faced with uncertainty, someone may not realize that they rely on the very first piece of information they encounter, which can bias their judgment.

For example, a police officer pulls over a car for speeding. In this instance, the number posted on the speed limit sign serves as the initial anchor—the arbitrary starting point—in the driver’s mind. To make a final decision, he implicitly adjusts his estimate towards the anchor.

His strategy uses the anchoring-and-adjustment heuristic—the mental shortcut whereby judgments made to an unknown question or situation start with anchoring information—whether arbitrary, suggested, or partially computed—that is then adjusted to yield a final answer.

Here, the driver’s estimate was insufficient and led to an unpleasant outcome—receiving a speeding ticket. He’s now eager to replace his car.

After researching the average cost for a new one that he wants, he quickly accepts the salesman’s offer, given that the price is just below the initial amount he expected to pay.

Without further research, he overlooked the possibility that another dealer could offer a much lower price. Once again, he’s fallen prey to the anchoring bias!

He’s not alone;