$$\rightleftharpoonup{xx}$$
$$\longleftharp{xx}$$,
$$\longrightharp{xx}$$,
Global climatic changes resulting from human actions are making a low-carbon economy an unavoidable necessity for the local authorities of the global edge1. Unusual weather occurrences can disrupt stream flow, the dynamics of the organisms within an ecosystem, instabilities in agricultural production2, damage associated with infrastructure, or increased morbidity and mortality, thereby indicating that the socio-economic, biological and geographical processes have induced variability and forced scholars to proceed to the driving of this change3. Ecotourism is associated with ecological costs because of the increase in ecotourists through its related pollutants4. Since it generates profits, builds infrastructure, creates employment opportunities and earns valuable foreign currency, the travel and tourism industry is a trillion-dollar business5, and it is 7.6% of the world today6, when the United Nations World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) reported that travel and tourism was responsible for 1 in ten jobs worldwide, 7% of global trade, and 10 percent of the world's GDP7. The increase in the number of visitors was one of the drivers of pollution-related emissions and material waste generation8.
Prior research has established the tourism-environment link but often relies on broad econometric models that lack sector-specific operational guidance9. This article demonstrates a structured analytical protocol integrating Energy Input-Output Analysis and Carbon Footprint Assessment to map direct and indirect energy flows and emissions across tourism sub-sectors. Unlike existing techniques, this method provides a granular, actionable breakdown for policymakers, moving from identification to targeted mitigation10. Climate impacts necessitate a low-carbon transition in tourism, a major global economic sector11. However, existing research lacks nuanced empirical analysis for major polluting economies with unique developmental pathways12,13. China presents a critical case study: it is the world's largest carbon emitter, possesses a tourism sector undergoing rapid expansion, and has an energy mix dominated by fossil fuels, creating a distinct tension between growth and sustainability. This study addresses a significant gap by investigating the non-linear Environmental Kuznets Curve relationship between tourism development and environmental footprint in China, while concurrently testing the pollution haven hypothesis through foreign investment flows. Our contributions are threefold: (1) providing China-specific, policy-relevant evidence on tourism's environmental trajectory, (2) integrating an analysis of energy structure and investment policy into the tourism-environment nexus, and (3) offering a methodological framework that distinguishes between short-run pressures and long-run sustainable pathways, thereby advancing the empirical literature beyond generalized cross-national findings.
This vision, described as a "True North a "planet initiative" to secure affluence and save the environment14, is operationalized through frameworks like the United Nations' Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) or "The 2030 Agenda," which comprises 17 goals and 169 targets15. Within this, sustainable tourism, promoted by the UN's declaration of 2017 as the International Year of Sustainable Tourism for Development16, is guided by principles such as those from the UNWTO emphasizing sustainable economic growth, inclusivity, and environmental protection17. Eco-tourism, which operates on the three pillars of social, economic, and environmental sustainability18, offers commercial, cultural, and environmental benefits19, by reconciling communities, climate, and the travel industry and enhancing resource reliability. Some nations already utilize tourism revenues for conservation, and it is recommended that all countries institute strategies to attract environmentally conscious tourists and enforce industry laws that protect the climate and resources20.
The protocol is designed for national or regional-scale application and assumes the availability of reliable tourism expenditure data and integrated energy-economic tables. A key limitation is its dependency on the resolution of this input data. Under these conditions, it enables authorities to pinpoint high-impact activities, assess renewable energy integration potentials, and design evidence-based regulations to transition towards a low-carbon tourism economy, thereby supporting ecological and economic sustainability21,22.
The environmental impacts of tourism are multifaceted, manifesting as heightened carbon emissions, waste, and resource depletion from vehicular and infrastructural demands, which collectively drain climatic and mineral wealth23. This is evidenced by the increased energy consumption and resultant CO₂ emissions driven by growing visitor numbers, a global phenomenon that has prompted governmental shifts towards establishing low-carbon business models24. Empirical evidence suggests a willingness among certain demographics, such as middle-aged males and ecotourists, to pay a premium for renewable energy use in accommodations, acknowledging its environmental benefit25. Furthermore, tourism intensifies pressure on vital resources, escalating the demand for water and sanitation facilities and challenging their wise management26. Scholarly investigations confirm this link, revealing that the top forty-eight ecotourism nations, with the exception of some European countries, face increased CO₂ emissions from tourism27, a correlation also established in OECD countries and specific Chinese provinces28. Research in 16 Mediterranean countries identified a combined effect of agriculture and tourism on green resources and established bidirectional causal relationships among renewable energy, GDP, and tourism, with one study confirming a 0.14% increase in tourism revenue for every 1% rise in CO₂ in the region29. Conversely, in France a top global destination tourism and population growth have been linked to contamination reduction, while other studies highlight complex, bidirectional connections between financial development, electricity usage, and tourism in leading ecotourism areas30. The scale of the issue is significant, with the global carbon footprint of tourism calculated to have risen from 3.9 GtCO₂e in 2009 to 4.5 GtCO₂e in 2013 across 160 nations, though the effect varies by region, exhibiting positive, negative, and null impacts on the climate in Tunisia, Egypt, and Morocco, respectively31.
Research examining the tourism-environment nexus reveals complex and region-specific dynamics, found the climatic impact of tourism to be positive in Tunisia, negative in Egypt, and neutral in Morocco, with the relationship between income and CO2 in the latter two nations confirming the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) hypothesis32. This hypothesis was further supported in OECD economies, where CO2,was found to be Granger-caused by both visitor numbers and the EKC relationship33. Case studies from specific destinations highlight this duality; in Pattaya, Thailand, tourism yielded both positive ecological planning and negative waste and pollution effects, while in Turkey, studies confirmed that a 1% increase in real income raised CO2 by 0.345%, with tourism and energy use identified as causal factors34. At a broader scale, an analysis of BRICS nations showed a 0.5313% increase in CO2 per 1% accretion in tourist receipts, though a feedback causality also suggested that a 1% rise in tourist financing could lead to a 0.5771% decrease in CO2. Conversely, research in Central and South America asserted unidirectional causality from renewable energy to CO2 reduction and found that environmental degradation abated due to tourism, FDI, and renewables35, a finding complemented by the confirmation of an inverted U-shaped EKC between economic globalization and carbon impact in South Asia. Finally, quantifying this impact, the annual carbon emissions from tourism in Barcelona were estimated at 9.6 MtCO2 eq., equating to 96.9 kg CO2 eq. per visitor daily36.
This study distinguishes itself within the extensive literature on tourism's impact on CO2, emissions by constructing a unique global tourism metric comprised of (i) domestic travel and tourism consumption, (ii) government personal travel expenditures, (iii) public investment, (iv) international tourist receipts, and (v) foreign visitor spending, expressed in terms of total environmental impact. Rather than a singular grouping, the analysis categorizes countries by income level to investigate the impact of tourism, economic growth, and renewable resources, alongside the relationships between these variables. This approach contributes to a nuanced understanding, particularly as the existing body of research presents conflicting conclusions. For instance, while eco-tourism branding as a key policy tool for conservation37, and the expansion of the carbon footprint from major tourist-originating nations, findings on the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) are mixed. Some studies affirm that tourism can trigger the EKC, suggesting it may foster environmental durability in high-income economies, despite tourist arrivals and receipts generally having a harmful effect on emissions38. Conversely, other research rejects the Kuznets postulate in high-income states or finds an increasing monotonic relationship between tourism revenue and environmental cost39.