Hindsight Bias and Predictability

Hindsight bias is the feeling that an event was predictable after it has already happened. It can make you believe you knew the outcome all along, even when you did not.

This bias shapes how people remember events and judge their own earlier predictions. It is often summed up by the phrase “hinds...

While an event’s outcome may seem inevitable, its prediction may not be as obvious as someone thinks.

For example, a student gleefully leaves the lecture hall with his latest exam score—and loudly proclaims that he knew he would ace the difficult test all along!

This phenomenon is an example of the hindsight b...