Judgment Under Uncertainty
Judgment Under Uncertainty - Related Videos
04:08
The Uncertainty Principle
0 Views •
2020
Werner Heisenberg considered the limits of how accurately one can measure properties of an electron or other microscopic particles. He determined that there is a fundamental limit to how accurately one can measure both a particle’s position and its momentum simultaneously. The more accurate the measurement of the momentum of a particle is known, the less accurate the position at that time is known and vice versa. This is what is now called the Heisenberg uncertainty principle. He mathematically...
09:20
Using fMRI to Dissect Moral Judgment
0 Views •
2023
Source: William Brady & Jay Van Bavel—New York University In examining the roles of reason and emotion in moral judgments, psychologists and philosophers alike point to the trolley dilemma and the footbridge dilemma. With the trolley dilemma, most people say that it is appropriate to pull a switch to stop a train from hitting five people by diverting it to kill one person. However, with the footbridge dilemma, most people say it is inappropriate to push a large man off of a bridge in order...
08:04
Evaluating the Accuracy of Snap Judgments
0 Views •
2023
Source: Diego Reinero & Jay Van Bavel—New York University Social psychologists have long been interested in the way people form impressions of others. Much of this work has focused on the errors people make in judging others, such as the exaggerated influence of central traits (such as "warm" and "cold"), the insufficient weight given to the context in which others' behavior takes place, and the tendency for people to make judgments that conform to their initial expectations about another.
02:46
Uncertainty in Measurement: Reading Instruments
0 Views •
2020
Counting is the type of measurement that is free from uncertainty, provided the number of objects being counted does not change during the process. Such measurements result in exact numbers. By counting the eggs in a carton, for instance, one can determine exactly how many eggs are there in the carton. Similarly, the numbers of defined quantities are also exact. For example, 1 foot is exactly 12 inches, 1 inch is exactly 2.54 centimeters, and 1 gram is exactly 0.001 kilograms. Quantities...
09:07
Experimental Research Examining How People Can Cope with Uncertainty Through Soft Haptic Sensations
0 Views •
Cited by 4 •
2015
To date research has focused on cognitive strategies people adopt to cope with uncertainty. This research examines instead an experiential way of dealing with uncertainty and introduces a set of experimental methods showing how the experience of haptic softness can serve as a tool to deal with uncertainty.
FAQs
Heuristics let people reach estimates and decisions without fully resolving every uncertainty in the available information. Their value lies in making judgment possible when evidence is incomplete or ambiguous, but the same shortcuts can generate systematic errors rather than occasional random mistakes. In psychology, examining these patterns helps explain how people interpret likelihood and select actions.
Base-rate neglect occurs when a person gives too little weight to how common an event is while interpreting case-specific information. This matters because a vivid or relevant-seeming detail can dominate the judgment, even when the broader frequency of the event should influence its likelihood. Studying this tendency clarifies why assessments can diverge from available probabilistic context.
Overconfidence concerns the strength or certainty people attach to their judgments, especially when outcomes remain uncertain. It can affect belief formation and action selection by making an estimate seem more reliable than the evidence warrants. In research on judgment under uncertainty, identifying overconfidence is important because it represents a predictable bias that can influence risk assessment and professional decisions.
Ambiguous evidence does not merely reduce the amount of information available; it can also complicate how people interpret likelihood and compare possible outcomes. This makes uncertainty relevant to both belief formation and choice, since individuals must decide what an unclear signal means before selecting an action. Psychological analysis therefore examines interpretation as well as final decisions.
To study these judgments, psychologists can focus on how people evaluate information and what actions they choose when evidence is incomplete, ambiguous, or probabilistic. Outcomes of interest include estimates of likelihood, beliefs about uncertain events, risk assessments, and decisions. Comparing these responses with the information available can reveal systematic biases such as overconfidence or base-rate neglect.
Judgment under uncertainty has practical relevance wherever decisions depend on imperfect evidence. In medical diagnosis, it helps frame how people assess likelihood; in finance, it informs understanding of behavior around uncertain outcomes. The same research contributes to public policy and human-computer interaction, where recognizing predictable reasoning errors can support methods for improving reasoning and decision processes.