In a competing-risks analysis, an event of one type can occur before the event being evaluated, so the possible outcomes cannot be treated independently by ignoring the other event. The package accounts for competing events while estimating absolute risk at specified times. This produces risk quantities that better represent the probability of each outcome in the observed time-to-event setting.
A time-dependent receiver operating characteristic, or ROC, analysis examines how well predicted risks separate individuals who experience an outcome from those who do not as follow-up progresses. Unlike an absolute risk estimate, it focuses on discrimination, meaning the model’s ability to rank people by outcome likelihood. This helps compare prognostic models when predictive separation may change across the time horizon.
Prediction error and the Brier score evaluate how closely predicted risks correspond to observed outcomes over time, complementing discrimination measures such as time-dependent ROC curves. A model can distinguish higher- from lower-risk individuals while showing weaker overall predictive performance. Considering these measures together gives model comparisons a broader basis than relying on discrimination alone.
Accounting for censoring is important because time-to-event datasets may not contain complete event information for every participant. The package incorporates censoring when assessing prediction error, Brier scores, and related performance measures, rather than treating incomplete follow-up as a straightforward observed outcome. This supports a more appropriate evaluation of models using survival data with incomplete observation periods.
An analysis can produce estimated absolute event risks at selected follow-up times together with measures of discrimination and prediction error. Examining these outputs side by side lets researchers assess both the magnitude of predicted risk and the model’s performance in separating outcomes. The results can support comparison of candidate prognostic models and selection of one for biomedical or public health use.
Researchers can use the package after developing prognostic models to evaluate how well they perform on time-to-event data. The workflow centers on applying the models, estimating risks over time, and examining time-dependent ROC, prediction-error, and Brier-score results while accounting for censoring and competing events. This creates a structured basis for validation and evidence-based model selection.
In clinical and public health research, predicted risk may be needed for an individual patient or summarized for a population. The package supports both perspectives by quantifying event risk over time and evaluating predictive performance in survival and competing-risks settings. These results can inform prognostic assessment, population risk characterization, and decisions about which model provides the most useful evidence.