Unrealistic Optimism Bias

Unrealistic optimism bias is a self-serving bias, which is the tendency to overestimate positive outcomes and feel positive about oneself.

As a result, people tend to believe they have a higher chance of success and a lower chance of failure than their peers.

A key aspect is the above-average effect, where people see themselves as superior to others in traits and abilities, even with objectively low performance.

For example, convicted criminals rate themselves better than average community members in terms of morality, generosity, and trustworthiness.

This self-serving bias helps maintain a positive self-image, making individuals dismiss negative feedback while emphasizing supportive information.

Self-serving bias leads individuals to rationalize failures by attributing them to external factors, while readily taking credit for successes.

Self-serving biases also apply to group successes.

For example, sports fans credit their team’s success to their support.

Research has consistently found that unrealistic optimism appears to be generally adaptive.

Studies suggest unrealistic optimism can result in poor decision-making, but it also improves motivation, persistence, and self-efficacy, which can lead to higher performance than average.