Radiofrequency ablation (RFA) is an established minimally invasive treatment for benign thyroid nodules, yet response assessment relies largely on delayed volume reduction, limiting early post-procedural decision-making. In this retrospective cohort, participants with a single index thyroid nodule underwent standardized B-mode ultrasound and elastography at baseline, immediately post-ablation, and at 1, 3, 6, and 12 months. Shear-wave elastography (SWE) stiffness and strain ratio were acquired using prespecified regions of interest and quality-control criteria. Twelve-month response was defined by a volume reduction ratio (VRR) ≥ 50%. Longitudinal changes were evaluated using linear mixed-effects models, and immediate post-RFA elastography changes (immediate minus baseline) were related to 12-month VRR using correlation and multivariable regression adjusted for baseline nodule volume, nodule composition, delivered energy, and age. Among the 187 included participants, 146 were responders, and 41 were non-responders. SWE increased immediately after RFA in responders (31.5 ± 5.1 kPa to 41.7 ± 5.6 kPa) and non-responders (35.1 ± 5.3 kPa to 43.4 ± 5.8 kPa), followed by progressive decline with lower 12-month SWE in responders than non-responders (21.6 ± 4.7 vs 31.2 ± 5.2 kPa). VRR separated early, with 12-month VRR of 73.6 ± 6.9% in responders versus 38.5 ± 8.7% in non-responders. In mixed-effects models, the immediate SWE increase was significant (estimate +10.22 kPa, P < 0.001), and late group divergence was evident (non-responder × 12 months estimate +9.41 kPa, P < 0.001). Early elastography change correlated with 12-month VRR (Δstrain ratio: r = 0.445, P < 0.001; ΔSWE: r = 0.302, P < 0.001) and remained independently associated with VRR in adjusted models (Δstrain ratio β = 14.80% per +1.0, P < 0.001; ΔSWE β = 1.80% per +5 kPa, P = 0.011). Immediate post-RFA elastography changes capture early tissue effects and provide independent prognostic information for 12-month volumetric response.