Name: why correlation can mislead
Uploaded: 2020-02-12T11:07:40.000Z
Duration: 1 min 53 s
Channel: JoVE

K12 Standards

Texas Essential Knowledge and Skills

High School

Biology

BIO.2

BIO.2.B

Cause and Effect

In some cases, the relationship between two items seems clear and intuitive, like when there&rsquo;s a sports game, people will order pizza even though it&rsquo;s getting late. One member of the group swears that eating several slices before retiring for the evening gives him nightmares.

Now, the only way to answer this question &quot;Does eating pizza right before going to sleep cause someone to have more nightmares?&quot; is to design an experiment.

In one type of experimental design, a cause-and-effect relationship, a researcher can determine whether manipulating an independent variable&mdash;in this case, eating pizza before bedtime&mdash;causes a particular effect&mdash;changes in the dependent variable, the number of nightmares that occur throughout the night.

They could assign half of the participants to the experimental group, which is given the experimental manipulation&mdash;the assignment of eating three slices of pizza right before they go to bed&mdash;and the second half to the control group, which is instructed not to eat anything.

They can also take certain measures to control for confounding variables that may produce alternative explanations.

For example, by randomly assigning participants to different groups&mdash;using

cause and effect

While variables are sometimes correlated because one does cause the other, it could also be that some other factor, a confounding variable, is actually causing the systematic movement in our variables of interest. For instance, as sales in ice cream increase, so does the overall rate of crime. Is it possible that indulging in your favorite flavor of ice cream could send you on a crime spree? Or, after committing crime do you think you might decide to treat yourself to a cone?

There is no question that a relationship exists between ice cream and crime (e.g., Harper, 2013), but it would be pretty foolish to decide that one thing actually caused the other to occur. It is much more likely that both ice cream sales and crime rates are related to the temperature outside. In this case, temperature is a confounding variable that could account for the relationship between the two variables.&nbsp;When the temperature is warm, there are lots of people out of their houses, interacting with each other, getting annoyed with one another, and sometimes committing crimes. Also, when it is warm outside, we are more likely to seek a cool treat like ice cream. How do we determine if there is indeed a relationship between two things? And when there is a relationship, how can we discern whether it is attributable to coincidence or causation?

Even when we cannot point to clear confounding variables, we should not assume that a correlation between two variables implies that one variable causes changes in another. This can be frustrating when a cause-and-effect relationship seems clear and intuitive. Think about the American Cancer Society and how their research projects were some of the first demonstrations of the link between smoking and cancer. It seems reasonable to assume that smoking causes cancer, but if we were limited to correlational research, we would be overstepping our bounds by making this assumption.

Unfortunately, people mistakenly make claims of causation as a function of correlations all the time. Such claims are especially common in advertisements and news stories. For example, recent research found that people who eat cereal on a regular basis achieve healthier weights than those who rarely eat cereal (Frantzen, Trevi&ntilde;o, Echon, Garcia-Dominic, &amp; DiMarco, 2013; Barton et al., 2005). Guess how the cereal companies report this finding. Does eating cereal really cause an individual to maintain a healthy weight, or are there other possible explanations, such as, someone at a healthy weight is more likely to regularly eat a healthy breakfast than someone who is obese or someone who avoids meals in an attempt to diet? While correlational research is invaluable in identifying relationships among variables, a major limitation is the inability to establish causality. Psychologists want to make statements about cause and effect, but the only way to do that is to conduct an experiment to answer a research question. Scientific experiments incorporate methods that eliminate, or control for, alternative explanations, which allow researchers to explore how changes in one variable cause changes in another variable.

Illusory Correlations 

The temptation to make erroneous cause-and-effect statements based on correlational research is not the only way we tend to misinterpret data. We also tend to make the mistake of illusory correlations, especially with unsystematic observations. Illusory correlations, or false correlations, occur when people believe that relationships exist between two things when no such relationship exists. One well-known illusory correlation is the supposed effect that the moon&rsquo;s phases have on human behavior. Many people passionately assert that human behavior is affected by the phase of the moon, and specifically, that people act strangely when the moon is full.

There is no denying that the moon exerts a powerful influence on our planet. The ebb and flow of the ocean&rsquo;s tides are tightly tied to the gravitational forces of the moon. Many people believe, therefore, that it is logical that we are affected by the moon as well. After all, our bodies are largely made up of water. A meta-analysis of nearly 40 studies consistently demonstrated, however, that the relationship between the moon and our behavior does not exist (Rotton &amp; Kelly, 1985). While we may pay more attention to odd behavior during the full phase of the moon, the rates of odd behavior remain constant throughout the lunar cycle.

Why are we so apt to believe in illusory correlations like this? Often we read or hear about them and simply accept the information as valid. Or, we have a hunch about how something works and then look for evidence to support that hunch, ignoring evidence that would tell us our hunch is false; this is known as confirmation bias. Other times, we find illusory correlations based on the information that comes most easily to mind, even if that information is severely limited. And while we may feel confident that we can use these relationships to better understand and predict the world around us, illusory correlations can have significant drawbacks. For example, research suggests that illusory correlations&mdash;in which certain behaviors are inaccurately attributed to certain groups&mdash;are involved in the formation of prejudicial attitudes that can ultimately lead to discriminatory behavior (Fiedler, 2004).

&nbsp;

This text is adapted from <a href="https://cnx.org/contents/Sr8Ev5Og@10.24:mfArybye@16/2-3-Analyzing-Findings" target="_blank">OpenStax, Psychology. OpenStax CNX.</a>

While variables are sometimes correlated because one does cause the other, it could also be that some other factor, a confounding variable, is actually ...

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why correlation can mislead

Correlation can be misleading when two variables move together for a different reason. A confounding variable, or hidden factor, may be causing the pattern instead of one variable directly affecting the other. The ice cream and crime example shows this clearly. When temperatures rise, more people go outside, buy ice cream, and may also have more chances for conflict.

A correlation does not prove causation. Even when a relationship looks strong, we should not assume that one variable causes the other. The link between smoking and cancer is a well-known example. It may seem obvious, but correlational research alone cannot prove cause and effect.

This is why experiments are needed to answer questions about cause and effect. Experiments use methods that remove or control alternative explanations. That lets researchers test whether changing one variable causes a change in another. Correlational research is still useful because it can identify relationships, but it cannot establish causality.

People also make mistakes with illusory correlations, which are false beliefs that two things are related when they are not. A common example is the idea that the full moon changes human behavior. A meta-analysis of nearly 40 studies found no real link between moon phases and behavior, even though some people notice odd events more during a full moon. The actual rate of odd behavior stays the same across the lunar cycle.

Illusory correlations often grow from confirmation bias. That means people look for evidence that supports what they already believe and ignore evidence that does not fit. They can also come from information that is easy to remember, even if it is limited. These false links can matter in real life, because they may shape prejudices and lead to discriminatory behavior.

Why Correlation Can Mislead

the scientific method

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Correlation can be misleading when two variables move together for a different reason. A confounding variable, or hidden factor, may be causing the pattern instead of one variable directly affecting the other. The ice cream and crime example shows this clearly. When temperatures rise, more people go outside, buy ice cream, and may also have more chances for conflict. A correlation does not prove causation. Even when a relationship looks strong, we should not assume that one variable causes the...

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key terms and concepts

Learn how confounding variables, correlation, and illusory correlations can lead to false cause-and-effect claims in science and everyday life.

Why Correlation Can Mislead | JoVE K12

JoVE Core Social Psychology offers a comprehensive learning experience on the principles of social behavior through concise, animated video lessons. The series explores key topics such as self-concept, social cognition, group dynamics, stereotypes, and relationships. It provides a structured foundation for understanding human behavior in social situations. Students gain insights into how individuals think, feel, and behave in social contexts while examining the psychological processes that influence interactions and judgments. By integrating theory with real-world applications, these lessons offer a clear and engaging approach to mastering essential concepts in social psychology.

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Why Correlation Can Mislead

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