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Find video protocols related to scientific articles indexed in Pubmed.
Using molecular epidemiology to track Toxoplasma gondii from terrestrial carnivores to marine hosts: implications for public health and conservation.
PLoS Negl Trop Dis
PUBLISHED: 05-01-2014
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Environmental transmission of the zoonotic parasite Toxoplasma gondii, which is shed only by felids, poses risks to human and animal health in temperate and tropical ecosystems. Atypical T. gondii genotypes have been linked to severe disease in people and the threatened population of California sea otters. To investigate land-to-sea parasite transmission, we screened 373 carnivores (feral domestic cats, mountain lions, bobcats, foxes, and coyotes) for T. gondii infection and examined the distribution of genotypes in 85 infected animals sampled near the sea otter range.
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A spatial risk assessment of bighorn sheep extirpation by grazing domestic sheep on public lands.
Prev. Vet. Med.
PUBLISHED: 01-15-2014
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Bighorn sheep currently occupy just 30% of their historic distribution, and persist in populations less than 5% as abundant overall as their early 19th century counterparts. Present-day recovery of bighorn sheep populations is in large part limited by periodic outbreaks of respiratory disease, which can be transmitted to bighorn sheep via contact with domestic sheep grazing in their vicinity. In order to assess the viability of bighorn sheep populations on the Payette National Forest (PNF) under several alternative proposals for domestic sheep grazing, we developed a series of interlinked models. Using telemetry and habitat data, we characterized herd home ranges and foray movements of bighorn sheep from their home ranges. Combining foray model movement estimates with known domestic sheep grazing areas (allotments), a Risk of Contact Model estimated bighorn sheep contact rates with domestic sheep allotments. Finally, we used demographic and epidemiologic data to construct population and disease transmission models (Disease Model), which we used to estimate bighorn sheep persistence under each alternative grazing scenario. Depending on the probability of disease transmission following interspecies contact, extirpation probabilities for the seven bighorn sheep herds examined here ranged from 20% to 100%. The Disease Model allowed us to assess the probabilities that varied domestic sheep management scenarios would support persistent populations of free-ranging bighorn sheep.
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Observations on abundance of bluntnose sixgill sharks, Hexanchus griseus, in an urban waterway in Puget Sound, 2003-2005.
PLoS ONE
PUBLISHED: 01-01-2014
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The bluntnose sixgill shark, Hexanchus griseus, is a widely distributed but poorly understood large, apex predator. Anecdotal reports of diver-shark encounters in the late 1990's and early 2000's in the Pacific Northwest stimulated interest in the normally deep-dwelling shark and its presence in the shallow waters of Puget Sound. Analysis of underwater video documenting sharks at the Seattle Aquarium's sixgill research site in Elliott Bay and mark-resight techniques were used to answer research questions about abundance and seasonality. Seasonal changes in relative abundance in Puget Sound from 2003-2005 are reported here. At the Seattle Aquarium study site, 45 sixgills were tagged with modified Floy visual marker tags, along with an estimated 197 observations of untagged sharks plus 31 returning tagged sharks, for a total of 273 sixgill observations recorded. A mark-resight statistical model based on analysis of underwater video estimated a range of abundance from a high of 98 sharks seen in July of 2004 to a low of 32 sharks seen in March of 2004. Both analyses found sixgills significantly more abundant in the summer months at the Seattle Aquarium's research station.
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Evaluation of the benefit of emergency vaccination in a foot-and-mouth disease free country with low livestock density.
Prev. Vet. Med.
PUBLISHED: 10-15-2013
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Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) is highly contagious and one of the most economically devastating diseases of cloven-hoofed animals. Scientific-based preparedness about how to best control the disease in a previously FMD-free country is therefore essential for veterinary services. The present study used a spatial, stochastic epidemic simulation model to compare the effectiveness of emergency vaccination with conventional (non-vaccination) control measures in Switzerland, a low-livestock density country. Model results revealed that emergency vaccination with a radius of 3km or 10km around infected premises (IP) did not significantly reduce either the cumulative herd incidence or epidemic duration if started in a small epidemic situation where the number of IPs is still low. However, in a situation where the epidemic has become extensive, both the cumulative herd incidence and epidemic duration are reduced significantly if vaccination were implemented with a radius of 10km around IPs. The effect of different levels of conventional strategy measures was also explored for the non-vaccination strategy. It was found that a lower compliance level of farmers for movement restrictions and delayed culling of IPs significantly increased both the cumulative IP incidence and epidemic duration. Contingency management should therefore focus mainly on improving conventional strategies, by increasing disease awareness and communication with stakeholders and preparedness of culling teams in countries with a livestock structure similar to Switzerland; however, emergency vaccination should be considered if there are reasons to believe that the epidemic may become extensive, such as when disease detection has been delayed and many IPs are discovered at the beginning of the epidemic.
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Spatial and temporal patterns of Leptospira infection in dogs from northern California: 67 cases (2001-2010).
J. Am. Vet. Med. Assoc.
PUBLISHED: 03-23-2013
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To conduct an epidemiological analysis of the spatial and temporal distribution of canine leptospirosis cases in northern California and detect spatial clustering in any region.
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Toxoplasma gondii, Source to Sea: Higher Contribution of Domestic Felids to Terrestrial Parasite Loading Despite Lower Infection Prevalence.
Ecohealth
PUBLISHED: 03-14-2013
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Environmental transmission of Toxoplasma gondii, a global zoonotic parasite, adversely impacts human and animal health. Toxoplasma is a significant cause of mortality in threatened Southern sea otters, which serve as sentinels for disease threats to people and animals in coastal environments. As wild and domestic felids are the only recognized hosts capable of shedding Toxoplasma oocysts into the environment, otter infection suggests land-to-sea pathogen transmission. To assess relative contributions to terrestrial parasite loading, we evaluated infection and shedding among managed and unmanaged feral domestic cats, mountain lions, and bobcats in coastal California, USA. Infection prevalence differed among sympatric felids, with a significantly lower prevalence for managed feral cats (17%) than mountain lions, bobcats, or unmanaged feral cats subsisting on wild prey (73-81%). A geographic hotspot of infection in felids was identified near Monterey Bay, bordering a high-risk site for otter infection. Increased odds of oocyst shedding were detected in bobcats and unmanaged feral cats. Due to their large populations, pet and feral domestic cats likely contribute more oocysts to lands bordering the sea otter range than native wild felids. Continued coastal development may influence felid numbers and distribution, increase terrestrial pathogens in freshwater runoff, and alter disease dynamics at the human-animal-environment interface.
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Spatio-temporal epidemiology of highly pathogenic avian influenza (H5N1) outbreaks in Nigeria, 2006-2008.
Prev. Vet. Med.
PUBLISHED: 09-11-2011
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From 2006 to 2008, outbreaks of highly pathogenic avian influenza A (HPAI) virus of the H5N1 subtype occurred among poultry in Nigeria. We described the spatio-temporal patterns of the HPAI H5N1 outbreaks in Nigeria. Data of suspected and laboratory confirmed outbreaks maintained at the National Veterinary Research Institute Vom was analyzed using descriptive and exploratory analyses, GIS mapping, global and local spatial statistical analyses using the Cuzick-Edwards (C-E) test and SaTScan Space-Time Scan Statistic. A total of 1654 suspected outbreaks were reported from 32 of the 36 States and the Federal Capital Territory (FCT), 299 were confirmed HPAI H5N1 positive from 27 states and FCT. The outbreaks occurred as three distinct epidemic waves with peak periods of January-March mainly in the North-West, North-Central and North-East regions during 2006 and 2007 and July-September in the South-West and South-South regions in 2007. Three spatio-temporal clusters were identified extending across States and international borders, consistent with disease transmission occurring through local and long-distance spread. This calls for enhanced strategies by the states and regional authorities to improve surveillance, prevention and control measures at the states, national and international levels.
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Prevalence of low pathogenicity avian influenza virus during 2005 in two U.S. live bird market systems.
Avian Dis.
PUBLISHED: 07-29-2011
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Oropharyngeal and cloacal swabs were collected from poultry sold in two live bird market (LBM) systems to estimate the prevalence of low pathogenicity avian influenza virus (LPAIV) shedding during the summer and fall of 2005. Random sampling was conducted in three LBMs in Minnesota where 50 birds were sampled twice weekly for 4 wk, and in three LBMs in a California marketing system. A stratified systematic sampling method was used to collect samples from Southern California LBMs, where LPAIV was detected during routine surveillance. No LPAIV was detected in the LBM system in Minnesota where realtime reverse transcription-PCR (RT-PCR) was conducted on oropharyngeal samples. RT-PCR was performed on swabs taken from 290 of 14,000, 65 of 252, and 60 of 211 birds at the three Southern California LBMs. The number of samples collected was based on the number of birds, age of the birds, and number of species present in the LBM. Virus isolation, subtyping, and sequencing of the hemagglutinin, neuraminidase, and other internal protein genes was performed on AIV-positive samples. The estimated prevalence of LPAIV in California was 0.345% in an LBM/supply farm with multiple ages of Japanese quail, 3% in an LBM with multiple ages and strains of chickens present, and 49.8% in an LBM with multiple species, multiple strains, and multiple ages. The positive virus samples were all LPAIV H6N2 and closely related to viruses isolated from Southern California in 2001 and 2004. Little or no comingling of poultry may contribute to little or no LPAIV detection in the LBMs.
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Emergence and genetic variation of neuraminidase stalk deletions in avian influenza viruses.
PLoS ONE
PUBLISHED: 01-24-2011
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When avian influenza viruses (AIVs) are transmitted from their reservoir hosts (wild waterfowl and shorebirds) to domestic bird species, they undergo genetic changes that have been linked to higher virulence and broader host range. Common genetic AIV modifications in viral proteins of poultry isolates are deletions in the stalk region of the neuraminidase (NA) and additions of glycosylation sites on the hemagglutinin (HA). Even though these NA deletion mutations occur in several AIV subtypes, they have not been analyzed comprehensively. In this study, 4,920 NA nucleotide sequences, 5,596 HA nucleotide and 4,702 HA amino acid sequences were analyzed to elucidate the widespread emergence of NA stalk deletions in gallinaceous hosts, the genetic polymorphism of the deletion patterns and association between the stalk deletions in NA and amino acid variants in HA. Forty-seven different NA stalk deletion patterns were identified in six NA subtypes, N1-N3 and N5-N7. An analysis that controlled for phylogenetic dependence due to shared ancestry showed that NA stalk deletions are statistically correlated with gallinaceous hosts and certain amino acid features on the HA protein. Those HA features included five glycosylation sites, one insertion and one deletion. The correlations between NA stalk deletions and HA features are HA-NA-subtype-specific. Our results demonstrate that stalk deletions in the NA proteins of AIV are relatively common. Understanding the NA stalk deletion and related HA features may be important for vaccine and drug development and could be useful in establishing effective early detection and warning systems for the poultry industry.
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Epidemic and economic impacts of delayed detection of foot-and-mouth disease: a case study of a simulated outbreak in California.
J. Vet. Diagn. Invest.
PUBLISHED: 01-11-2011
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The epidemic and economic impacts of Foot-and-mouth disease virus (FMDV) spread and control were examined by using epidemic simulation and economic (epinomic) optimization models. The simulated index herd was a ?2,000 cow dairy located in California. Simulated disease spread was limited to California; however, economic impact was assessed throughout the United States and included international trade effects. Five index case detection delays were examined, which ranged from 7 to 22 days. The simulated median number of infected premises (IP) ranged from approximately 15 to 745, increasing as the detection delay increased from 7 to 22 days. Similarly, the median number of herds under quarantine increased from approximately 680 to 6,200, whereas animals slaughtered went from approximately 8,700 to 260,400 for detection delays of 7-22 days, respectively. The median economic impact of an FMD outbreak in California was estimated to result in national agriculture welfare losses of $2.3-$69.0 billion as detection delay increased from 7 to 22 days, respectively. If assuming a detection delay of 21 days, it was estimated that, for every additional hr of delay, the impact would be an additional approximately 2,000 animals slaughtered and an additional economic loss of $565 million. These findings underline the critical importance that the United States has an effective early detection system in place before an introduction of FMDV if it hopes to avoid dramatic losses to both livestock and the economy.
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Visualization and analysis of the Danish 2006 highly pathogenic avian influenza virus H5N1 wild bird surveillance data by a prototype avian influenza BioPortal.
Avian Dis.
PUBLISHED: 06-05-2010
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Infection with highly pathogenic avian influenza virus H5N1 occurred for the first time in Denmark in 2006 during the last part of the European epidemic that mainly affected migrating wild birds. The total number of Danish wild bird cases was 45, of which only one was found through active surveillance using fecal sampling from resting areas for migrating species, whereas passive surveillance of dead wild birds provided 44 cases. One backyard, mixed poultry flock also became infected late in the epidemic. This study describes the spatial and temporal distribution of cases, initially characterized by a spatial-temporal cluster of affected tufted ducks that led to further spread to other wild bird species in the vicinity. The surveillance data also indicate an apparent die-off of the regional epidemic. As a tool in visualizing the spatial and temporal development of the epidemic, a prototype avian influenza (AI) BioPortal was used to provide online web-based access to the data. The AI BioPortal tools include mapping, graphing, phylogenetic tree construction, playback scenarios, and visualization of results of temporal-spatial analyses. Several of the features of this surveillance system compare favorably to the design of existing national and international surveillance information systems, and the AI BioPortal may become a useful tool for disease surveillance and for decision support in the event of future AI epidemics, both at national and international levels.
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Impact of bovine brucellosis eradication programs in the Republic of Korea.
Prev. Vet. Med.
PUBLISHED: 04-07-2010
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This study concerns a quantitative analysis of the bovine brucellosis eradication program in the Republic of Korea to provide insight into how to plan better future control strategies. In 2004, an active bovine brucellosis eradication program, based principally on intensive test-and-slaughter, was implemented in Korea. With more intensive testing on cattle, the reported incidence rate at herd level increased significantly, becoming 61 times higher in 2006 (225.1 per 10,000 farms) than in 2003 (3.7 per 10,000 farms). Since 2006, when the greatest numbers of infected farms and animals were detected, the incidence rate has been decreasing. All control measures applied in the brucellosis eradication program contributed significantly to the reduction in the incidence of brucellosis. The continuation of the current control strategies, combined with new, innovative measures, may facilitate the eradication of bovine brucellosis in Korea in the near future.
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Parameterization of the duration of infection stages of serotype O foot-and-mouth disease virus: an analytical review and meta-analysis with application to simulation models.
Vet. Res.
PUBLISHED: 03-08-2010
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Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) is considered one of the most important infectious diseases of livestock because of the devastating economic consequences that it inflicts in affected regions. The value of critical parameters, such as the duration of the latency or the duration of the infectious periods, which affect the transmission rate of the FMD virus (FMDV), are believed to be influenced by characteristics of the host and the virus. Disease control and surveillance strategies, as well as FMD simulation models, will benefit from improved parameter estimation. The objective of this study was to quantify the distributions of variables associated with the duration of the latency, subclinical, incubation, and infectiousness periods of FMDV transmission. A double independent, systematic review of 19 retrieved publications reporting results from experimental trials, using 295 animals in four reference laboratories, was performed to extract individual values related to FMDV transmission. Probability density functions were fitted to data and a set of regression models were used to identify factors associated with the assessed parameters. Latent, subclinical, incubation, and infectious periods ranged from 3.1 to 4.8, 2 to 2.3, 5.5 to 6.6, and 3.3 to 5.7 days, respectively. Durations were significantly (p < 0.05) associated independently with route of exposure, type of donor, animal species, strains, characteristics of sampling, and clinical signs. These results will contribute to the improvement of disease control and surveillance strategies and stochastic models used to simulate FMD spread and, ultimately, development of cost-effective plans to prevent and control the potential spread of the disease in FMD-free regions of the world.
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Geographic distribution of autism in California: a retrospective birth cohort analysis.
Autism Res
PUBLISHED: 01-06-2010
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Prenatal environmental exposures are among the risk factors being explored for associations with autism. We applied a new procedure combining multiple scan cluster detection tests to identify geographically defined areas of increased autism incidence. This procedure can serve as a first hypothesis-generating step aimed at localized environmental exposures, but would not be useful for assessing widely distributed exposures, such as household products, nor for exposures from nonpoint sources, such as traffic. Geocoded mothers residences on 2,453,717 California birth records, 1996-2000, were analyzed including 9,900 autism cases recorded in the California Department of Developmental Services (DDS) database through February 2006 which were matched to their corresponding birth records. We analyzed each of the 21 DDS Regional Center (RC) catchment areas separately because of the wide variation in diagnostic practices. Ten clusters of increased autism risk were identified in eight RC regions, and one Potential Cluster in each of two other RC regions.After determination of clusters, multiple mixed Poisson regression models were fit to assess differences in known demographic autism risk factors between the births within and outside areas of elevated autism incidence, independent of case status.Adjusted for other covariates, the majority of areas of autism clustering were characterized by high parental education, e.g. relative risks >4 for college-graduate vs. nonhigh-school graduate parents. This geographic association possibly occurs because RCs do not actively conduct case finding and parents with lower education are, for various reasons, less likely to successfully seek services.
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Results of a survey to estimate cattle movements and contact rates among beef herds in California, with reference to the potential spread and control of foot-and-mouth disease.
J. Am. Vet. Med. Assoc.
PUBLISHED: 09-02-2009
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To estimate contact rates and movement variables for shipments of beef cattle to and from producer premises in California.
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Invasions by Eurasian avian influenza virus H6 genes and replacement of the virus North American clade.
Emerging Infect. Dis.
PUBLISHED: 07-24-2009
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The spread of highly pathogenic avian influenza virus (AIV) (H5N1) underlines the potential for global AIV movement through birds. The phylogenies of AIV genes from avian hosts usually separate into Eurasian and North American clades, reflecting limited bird migration between the hemispheres. However, mounting evidence that some H6 sequences from North America cluster with Eurasian subtype H6 sequences calls the strict hemispheric divide into question. We conducted a comprehensive phylogenetic analysis of the extent and timing of cross-hemisphere movements by the H6 gene. Results suggested that Eurasian H6 subtype has invaded North America several times, with the first invasions occurring 10 years before the first detection of invading isolates. The members of the North American clade decreased from 100% in the 1980s to 20% in the 2000s among H6 isolates from North America. Unraveling the reasons for this large-scale gene movement between hemispheres might identify drivers of global AIV circulation.
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A flock-tailored early warning system for low pathogenic avian influenza (LPAI) in commercial egg laying flocks.
Prev. Vet. Med.
PUBLISHED: 07-23-2009
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The aim of this study was to develop and evaluate an early warning system (EWS) for commercial egg laying flocks to detect the subtle mortality and egg production changes that characterize low pathogenic avian influenza virus (LPAIV) infections. An EWS will create an alert when the recommended trigger point is reached or exceeded. Previously used EWSs are based on fixed alert levels, while the proposed EWS customizes the alert level to each flock. While a fixed approach may be valid for highly pathogenic diseases, it results in a lower detection probability for low pathogenic diseases. The EWS was based on daily data collected from flocks affected by the 2000-2004 H6N2 LPAI epidemic in California. Three EWSs were evaluated: (1) EWS1, which is triggered when the observed mortality increase or production decrease exceeds more than "x" times the expected daily value (2.75-3.50 times the expected mortality), (2) EWS2, which is triggered when the observed mortality increase or production decrease exceeds more than "y" times during each of 2 consecutive days the expected daily values (1.75-2.15 times the expected mortality), and (3) a combination of the two. The EWSs were evaluated according to three parameters: detection delay (days) of a LPAI outbreak, false alerts (%) and outbreaks missed (%). Results showed that an egg production-based EWS added no benefit to a mortality-based system, mainly because H6N2 LPAI-related egg production decrease always occurred after increase in mortality. Combining the two EWSs resulted in a reduced detection delay and no missed outbreaks, but at the expense of a slight increase in the number of false alerts triggered. The system presented in this study also outperformed fixed EWSs in all three evaluated parameters. The proposed EWS, if used as part of a poultry cooperative program and combined with a rapid laboratory diagnosis, could be a useful tool in the detection and control of LPAI outbreaks and other poultry diseases. Built in a spreadsheet, the system could be inexpensively, easily and quickly incorporated into a commercial egg production farm decision support system. In addition, the proposed system could be quickly adjusted to changing epidemic situations, and easily customized to individual flocks.
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Identifying errors in avian influenza virus gene sequences and implications for data usage of public databases.
Genomics
PUBLISHED: 07-15-2009
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Public gene sequence databases have become important research tools to understand viruses and other organisms. Evidence suggests that the identifying information for some of the sequences in these databases might not belong to the sequences they are associated with. We developed two tests to conduct a comprehensive analysis of all published sequences of the hemaglutinin and neuramidase genes of avian influenza viruses (AIVs) to identify sequences that may have been misclassified. One test identified sequence pairs with highly similar nucleotide sequences despite a difference of several years between their sampling dates. Another test, which was applied to samples sequenced and deposited more than once, detected sequences with more nucleotide differences to their own than to their closest relatives. All sequences identified as misclassified were further traced to relevant publications to assess the likelihood of contamination and determine if any conclusions were associated with the use of these sequences. Our results suggested that among 4040 published gene sequences examined, approximately 0.8% might be misclassified and that publications using these sequences may include inaccurate statements. Findings from this report suggest that using laboratory-adapted strains and handling multiple samples simultaneously increases the risk of contamination. The tests reported here may be useful for screening new submissions to public sequence databases.
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Epidemiologic investigation of the re-emergence of infectious salmon anemia virus in Chile.
Dis. Aquat. Org.
PUBLISHED: 05-30-2009
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Reports from surveillance activities were analyzed to determine the epidemiology of the re-emergence of infectious salmon anemia virus (ISAV) in Atlantic salmon farms in Chile. The epidemic and spatial and spatiotemporal patterns were described, taking into account commercial compartmentalization of the farms. During the 64 wk study period, 76 ISAV-infected salmon farms, representing 17 companies, were reported in 65% of the management geographic zones of the 10th region in southern Chile. Approximately 20% of the farms at risk became infected, with the incidence rate increasing slightly over time. Results from epidemic analyses and observed spatial and spatiotemporal patterns suggested an initial dispersal and subsequent clustering of cases around the index case (IC) in a propagated epidemic mode. Results suggested that delayed depopulation may have been a key factor in the spread and persistence of ISAV. Clustering of cases supported the assumption that passive transmission in seawater from ISAV-infected farms (proximity) is a critical factor in controlling disease. The re-emergence of ISAV in Chile has resulted in one of the largest ISAV epidemics reported in the world and this study generates new hypotheses and provides useful information for spatial disease control planning in salmon farming areas.
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Spatial distribution of free-of-charge pathology submissions to the California Animal Health and Food Safety laboratories during the exotic Newcastle outbreak in 2002-2003.
Avian Dis.
PUBLISHED: 05-13-2009
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After the 1971-1973 outbreak of exotic Newcastle disease (END) in California, a free-of-charge diagnostic submission program was created for backyard poultry flocks. This program was implemented to improve disease surveillance in small poultry flocks. The aim of this study was to evaluate the spatial distribution of free-of-charge pathology submissions to the California Animal Health and Food Safety laboratories during the END outbreak in 2002-2003. Cases and controls were selected from within a 100-mile (161-km) radius of each of three laboratories, and their geographic distributions were evaluated. Global clustering of cases was significant around all three laboratories, with mixed results at the local clustering level and the only significant clustering at the focal level around the Davis laboratory with an observed to expected ratio of approximately 5. The area of influence for all three laboratories was about 20 miles (32 km). The significant clustering of cases around the laboratories indicates that more public information about the free-of-charge program could result in coverage of a larger portion of the population; however, the value of the information resulting from increased sampling should be considered relative to the additional cost of obtaining it.
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Epidemiology of H5N1 avian influenza.
Comp. Immunol. Microbiol. Infect. Dis.
PUBLISHED: 04-29-2009
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High pathogenic (HP) H5N1 avian influenza (AI) infection has been reported in domestic poultry, wildlife, and human populations since 1996. Risk of infection is associated with direct contact with infected birds. The mode of H5N1 spread from Asia to Europe, Africa and the Far East is unclear; risk factors such as legal and illegal domestic poultry and exotic bird trade, and migratory bird movements have been documented. Measures used to control disease such as culling, stamping out, cleaning and disinfection, and vaccination have not been successful in eradicating H5N1 in Asia, but have been effective in Europe.
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Simulation of an early warning system using sentinel birds to detect a change of a low pathogenic avian influenza virus (LPAIV) to high pathogenic avian influenza virus (HPAIV).
Prev. Vet. Med.
PUBLISHED: 04-22-2009
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The placement of sentinel birds in a commercial poultry flock infected with low pathogenic avian influenza virus (LPAIV) may be an effective way of detecting subsequent change in the isolate to a high pathogenic avian influenza virus (HPAIV). Data collected from the 2002 Chilean HPAIV outbreak, along with information from a literature review of laboratory studies involving A/chicken/Chile/176822/02 (H7N3/LP) and A/chicken/Chile/184240-1/02 (H7N3/HP) viruses, were used to construct a computer simulation model. Mortality rates of the original LPAIV-infected population and the sentinel population were compared to detect the presence of HPAIV. A total of 12 increased mortality threshold scenarios were examined, using one-day absolute (2, 3, or 4 birds) or relative (0.5, 1.0, or 1.5%) mortality thresholds, and two-day absolute (1, 2, or 3 birds) or relative (0.25, 0.50, or 1.00%) mortality thresholds, to indicate the change from LPAIV to HPAIV in the sentinel and original populations, respectively. Results showed that following a one-day approach, threshold mortalities occurred on average at 7.35, 7.82, and 8.17 (0.5, 1.0, or 1.5%) and 6.21, 6.38, and 6.45 (2, 3, or 4 birds) days after the first infectious case for the original and sentinel populations, respectively. The two-day approach delayed the occurrence of threshold mortalities, on average, to 7.64, 8.05, and 8.62 (0.25, 0.50, or 1.00%) and 6.86, 6.78, and 7.23 (1, 2, or 3 birds) days after the first infectious case for the original and sentinel populations, respectively. Although, significant (p<0.10) differences were observed among different combinations of detection times for the original and sentinel populations, the use of sentinel birds has a maximum mean advantage, over monitoring mortality exclusively in the original population, of 1.96 and 1.84 days for one- and two-day threshold moralities, respectively. Additionally, the early warning system based on a sentinel vs. original population presented a decrease of the probabilities of a false alarm, from 0.04-0.45 to <0.01-0.10%. These findings may be used by decision makers to evaluate the risk of not depopulating a flock infected with a H5 or H7 LPAIV strain and the benefit of using sentinel birds as an early warning system of a change to HPAIV.
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An evaluation of transmission routes for low pathogenicity avian influenza virus among chickens sold in live bird markets.
Virology
PUBLISHED: 02-03-2009
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Many theories about the modes of avian influenza virus (AIV) transmission have been proposed, but few have been quantified, and none within a flock or live bird market (LBM) setting where birds are often kept in stacked cages. We describe a novel experimental design and the results collected for the purpose of estimating transmission rates specific to the potential modes of AIV transmission within an LBM. Chickens of the strains and ages found in California LBMs were inoculated with low pathogenicity AIV H6N2. Aerosol exposure was found to be the most important route of transmission for this H6N2 AIV. The handling of infectious chickens resulted in the transmission of H6N2 AIV, though the virus was not detectible by rRT-PCR. Chickens with fecal exposure to infected birds (median=8.0 DPI) had detectable virus earlier than in those with aerosol exposure only (median=10.0 DPI). Changes in the hemagglutinin sequence were not found to be associated with oropharyngeal or cloacal shedding in this study.
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Transmission of low-pathogenicity avian influenza virus of subtype H6N2 from chickens to Pekin ducks and Japanese quail (Coturnix coturnix japonica).
Avian Pathol.
PUBLISHED: 01-22-2009
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In this experiment we evaluated the transmission characteristics of a chicken-adapted low-pathogenicity avian influenza virus (LPAIV) of subtype H6N2, from infected chickens to Japanese quail and Pekin ducks, which are commonly sold in live bird markets located in Southern California. The layout of the cages and bird-handling practices were similar to those found in Southern California live bird markets. Five out of 20 chickens were inoculated with LPAIV H6N2, and placed in direct contact with five chickens and in indirect contact with 10 chickens, 10 Japanese quail and 10 Pekin ducks. Transmission of LPAIV was followed in each bird daily for 15 days post inoculation by real-time reverse transcriptase-polymerase chain reaction testing of oropharyngeal and cloacal swab samples. This strain of H6N2 LPAIV, isolated from commercial poultry in California, was transmitted to chickens, quail, and ducks from chickens. An antibody response was detected in ducks by haemagglutination inhibition tests, but avian influenza virus was only detected by reverse transcriptase-polymerase chain reaction in one duck. Avian influenza virus was detected in quail (5 and 7 days post inoculation) before chickens (8 and 9 days post inoculation), all of which were in indirect contact with infected chickens; however, this difference was not statistically significant.
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Nonparametric spatial analysis to detect high-risk regions for schistosomiasis in Guichi, China.
Trans. R. Soc. Trop. Med. Hyg.
PUBLISHED: 01-02-2009
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Schistosomiasis control in China is facing a new challenge due to the rebound of epidemics in many areas and the unsustainable effects of the chemotherapy-based control strategy. Identifying high-risk regions for schistosomiasis is an important first step for an effective and sustainable strategy. Direct surveillance of snail habitats to detect high-risk regions is costly and no longer a desirable approach, while indirect monitoring of acute schistosomiasis may be a satisfactory alternative. To identify high-risk regions for schistosomiasis, we jointly used multiplicative and additive models with the kernel smoothing technique as the main approach to estimate the relative risk (RR) and excess risk (ER) surfaces by analyzing surveillance data for acute schistosomiasis. The feasibility of detecting high-risk regions for schistosomiasis through nonparametric spatial analysis was explored and confirmed in this study, and two significant high-risk regions were identified. The results provide useful hints for improving the national surveillance network for acute schistosomiasis and possible approaches to utilizing surveillance data more efficiently. In addition, the commonly used epidemiological indices, RR and ER, are examined and emphasized from the spatial point of view, which will be helpful for exploring many other epidemiological indices.
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Alternative scan-based approaches to identify space-time clusters of highly pathogenic avian influenza virus H5N1 in wild birds in Denmark and Sweden in 2006.
Avian Dis.
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The objective of this study was to demonstrate the effects of the nature of the information collected through passive surveillance on the detection of space-time clusters of highly pathogenic avian influenza virus (HPAIV) H5N1 cases reported among dead wild birds in Denmark and Sweden in 2006. Data included 1469 records (109 cases, 1360 controls) collected during the regional epidemic between February and June by passive surveillance of dead wild birds. Laboratory diagnoses were obtained by PCR methods and/or virus isolation. The nature of available information influences both the type of model suitable for analysis and its parameterization. Here, we explored four alternative scan-based methods, suitable for detection of clusters only when case data (univariate permutation model), case and hypothesized epidemiological variables (multivariate permutation model), case and control data (univariate Bernoulli model), and case, control, and hypothesized epidemiological variables (multivariate Bernoulli model) are available. Tufted ducks were particularly common among infected wild bird species detected in Denmark and Sweden during the initial phases of this epidemic, and species group (tufted ducks [62 cases, 57 controls] vs. other wild bird species [47 cases, 1303 controls]) was considered in the multivariate models as a covariate potentially associated with clustering. Bernoulli and permutation scan analyses both detected multiple significant (P < 0.01) clusters with similar locations, but with certain differences in their numbers and sizes. The observed-to-expected case ratios in the two clusters detected by the multivariate Bernoulli scan model were substantially heterogeneous. However, the permutation model detected only one of the Swedish clusters and only pinpointed the heterogeneity between species on clustering in the same Danish cluster as detected by the Bernoulli model. The output of the methods described here were shown to be highly sensitive to the choice of the probability model for cases and the choice of plausible assumptions to parameterize the scan statistic tests. The results of the multivariate Bernoulli suggest that with noncase information regarding a potential risk factor, such as species of birds, this method is sensitive and efficient in identifying high-risk areas and time periods for regional occurrence of HPAIV and potentially for similar infectious diseases. Results here demonstrate the impact that the nature of the collected information has on the epidemiological investigation of outbreaks. Results show the importance of collecting information on control data and on variables hypothesized to influence disease risk on the identification of periods of time and locations at high risk for the disease and risk factors associated with clustering as part of the national and international surveillance systems.
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Assessing alternative low pathogenic avian influenza virus surveillance strategies in a live bird market.
Avian Dis.
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Surveillance, comprised of sampling and testing, of low pathogenic avian influenza virus (LPAIV) in a live bird market (LBM) may enable the detection of the virus, reducing its spread within the market to humans and birds and to other markets within the LBM system. In addition, detection of infected birds would also reduce the probability of reassortment and possible change from a LPAIV to a highly pathogenic avian influenza virus, which would have a devastating impact on the economy, trade, and society. In this paper we present results from a computer simulation model based on previously collected survey and experimental transmission data. Once we validated the model with experimental transmission data, we applied it to address some of the questions that need to be answered in order to create an efficient surveillance system in an LBM. We have identified effective sampling times, patterns, and sizes that would enhance the probability of an early detection of LPAIV if present and minimize the associated labor and cost. The model may be modified to evaluate different sized and structured LBMs. It also provides the basis to evaluate an entire LBM system for the United States or other countries.
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Stochastic modelling of intra-household transmission of hepatitis C virus: evidence for substantial non-sexual infection.
J. Infect.
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To simulate the probability of HCV transmission from an HCV seropositive index patient to susceptible household contacts through non-sexual exposures.
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Comparison of enzootic risk measures for predicting West Nile disease, Los Angeles, California, USA, 2004-2010.
Emerging Infect. Dis.
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In Los Angeles, California, USA, 2 epidemics of West Nile virus (WNV) disease have occurred since WNV was recognized in 2003. To assess which measure of risk was most predictive of human cases, we compared 3 measures: the California Mosquito-Borne Virus Surveillance and Response Plan Assessment, the vector index, and the Dynamic Continuous-Area Space-Time system. A case-crossover study was performed by using symptom onset dates from 384 persons with WNV infection to determine their relative environmental exposure to high-risk conditions as measured by each method. Receiver-operating characteristic plots determined thresholds for each model, and the area under the curve was used to compare methods. We found that the best risk assessment model for human WNV cases included surveillance data from avian, mosquito, and climate sources.
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What is Visualize?

JoVE Visualize is a tool created to match the last 5 years of PubMed publications to methods in JoVE's video library.

How does it work?

We use abstracts found on PubMed and match them to JoVE videos to create a list of 10 to 30 related methods videos.

Video X seems to be unrelated to Abstract Y...

In developing our video relationships, we compare around 5 million PubMed articles to our library of over 4,500 methods videos. In some cases the language used in the PubMed abstracts makes matching that content to a JoVE video difficult. In other cases, there happens not to be any content in our video library that is relevant to the topic of a given abstract. In these cases, our algorithms are trying their best to display videos with relevant content, which can sometimes result in matched videos with only a slight relation.